Vainglory Forums

I just drew 24 cards from the Glory box.
ALL were common.

Does anyone know probabilities? I believe the odds of not getting one of any other type is very low. 1/300?
Chance on any one pull..... 12/68, then 12/67, then 12/66,....all the way to 12cards/44cards.

I'm about to hang up this game for good.

Actually, I was so interested in relearning probability math, and realized I could do 24 permutations quickly on a spreadsheet....
If there are 12 items you would like to get out of a total of 80 items, after picking 24 times, with the quantity of non-desired items decreasing each time, the odds that you would not pick one of the 12 items at least once is...

0.73%

That means if I spend another 2800+ Glory Of a full Glory Box the odds that this will happen again are 7.3 in 1000.

I'm no mathematician, so I might've screwed that up, but it sounds about right.


Hmmmm.

either way, the glory boxes are a waste of glory unless you can buy all the cards. wait for 9500 glory and you will not waste your money. quit trying to gamble. just buy all 80.

Or you just do what I do and play an astronomical amount of games and get cards like that break them down and then create the card you want. I'm just thrilled that there is a system in place that allows me to do that instead of relying on some ****py number generator to give the card I need. I have horrible luck with stuff like that. A perfect example was when I played World of Warcraft they had a mount drop in Raid content in Tempest Keep called "Ashes of Al'ar", I started playing as soon as the Burning Crusades expansion dropped and continued to play all the way through Mist of Pandaria and I raided the place every week religiously since BC was introduced and never even saw the mount, Now think about that before you complain about what cards you can get I literally spent years trying to aquire 1 item in a game and still ended up not being able to get it before I quit playing the game (Jan 16th 2007 to Sept 25th 2012). Thats 260 weeks trying to aquire 1 item(5years). Actually it was closer to 6 years since I played to the end of Mist.

Wow, lol.
It is not evident by your replies that you understood the intent of my post. I am directly implying that I do not believe the glory box is random.
You've also answered another question for Super evil megacorp: they don't have to care that a few people might detect the strong possibility of an unfair algorithm. They've got players here who will spend 260 hours over 5 years trying to get one item in the digital world. Or, in order to avoid the risk of chance will game endlessly just so they can purchase everything in the box.

Superevil and MegaZ wink at each other and walk away.

Oh man, I've gotta stay off these forums.

lol i understand your complaint about the odds very well, but i think you should do the probability research and check out unrelated events and you should take a larger sample size (so the results from one box attempt are relatively meaningless, just like the one time you win at the casino).

no matter what, even though you draw four at once, each card has the same odds of getting pulled, just like numbers in the lotto. so you wouldnt say the lotto is somehow especially unfair because you didnt get any of the numbers one week, 3 numbers the next week, and lost every week of your life. your odds of getting a rare or better card are 15% at first and go up or down depending on your pulls. those are TERRIBLE odds. If you want to gamble, go play roulette - at least youve got a nearly 50/50 shot if you put it all on black.

i say all this because i bought probably 20 of the damned things and i did very careful tracking of the odds before i came to the conclusion that it is a better use of glory to just buy them all. it just hurts too much to see 2 good cards sitting in the last remaining pack and no way to get the glory in time.

A recent example of successful gambling (the only kind i do): got all 80 cards from a box and had enough for one more pull. pulled it and got a legendary. i wont risk half my glory on gambling when the odds are that effing terrible.

please dont stay off the forums, this is an important conversation! thank you for posting it.

just to clarify my earlier comments, your odds of drawing a good card never approached even 50 percent if you only drew 24 cards.

even at the end, when you had your best shot by cleaning up all those undesirables, you had 12 good/56 total (21.42%, less than 1/4) odds any card you drew would be better than basic.

this is why i decided to stop gambling. your odds get slightly better as you draw ****py cards, but you have so much less glory to take advantage of that fact that it is better to just buy them all.

This is an important part of why i think the boxes are pretty awesome compared to other systems where you just get something random. Can you imagine a casino where there was a list of the prizes and all you had to do was bring the dough to play all the games, win them all, and stop? sign me up!

I'm sorry to keep ragging, but I forgot one thing about the buy em all strategy - patience.

never start without the glory to buy the whole box. If your odds ever get WORSE THAN 15% that you will draw a good card (that means, basically, if you draw good ones early), STOP IMMEDIATELY and save your glory for the next box reset where your odds return to 15%.

Bide your time, build your glory, keep going. I actually rejoice at getting all the bad cards out of the way because i get to buy the whole box. i got like a butt ton of cards, man. like, 70% of all the legendary cards, having maxed out on the regular cards long ago, and 30% of both rare and epic.

one last thing and i'll stop i swear. if you are a completionist like me, SAVE YOUR ESSENCE FOR THE RARE CARDS. each glory box gets you only 6 rares, out of a total of 462, or 1.2% of them, while it gives you 4/136 epics, or 2.9% of them, so wait for Epics from matches and boxes and build rares with your essence. they are the best essence conversion deal, especially once you have all the legendary cards you need and you can start selling the extras off for sweet sweet essence. cheers.

cC8. Resorting my faith in humanity with a positive conversation.
If I get around to it I'll calculate the power of my results based on sample size. Agreed, would always like a bigger sample size.